| 2009 Week 1 NFL Matchups | ||||
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It's finally here! After months of a football-less world, we'll finally see some NFL pigskin. Each week of this 2009 NFL season, I will break down the matchups for the week. Although, as with any educated guess, I will end up being wrong a good portion of the time, I think it will be fun and informative to look at what drives each team throughout the season. The inaugural game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans is already in the books, with the Steelers coming out on top 13-10 in overtime play. So, without further delay, here are the rest of the inaugural week’s NFL matchup breakdowns. Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons The Miami Dolphins surprised everyone under first-year head coach Tony Sparano by turning their 2007 1-15 season into an 11-5 campaign and an AFC title. Chad Pennington was a model of consistency, and although he didn’t grace a Pro Bowl roster, many felt he should have gotten the opportunity. They also took the world by storm with the new “Wildcat” offense, and drafted Pat White out of West Virginia in order to further implement the system. The Falcons were also the comeback kids of the NFL in 2008. The 2007 season left the Falcons with inconsistent quarterback play, leading the team to draft Matt Ryan out of Boston College. Ryan went on to be NFL rookie of the year, and looks to improve on that solid season in 2009. The Dolphins Win If: The Dolphins will need to control time of possession with a solid running game. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will need to provide a one-two punch with a mix-in of Pennington, who has proven he can pick apart defenses with precision without turning the ball over. The Falcons Win If: The Falcons main concern heading into this game is a patchwork secondary. Three members of the defensive backfield have three years of experience or less and were suspect at best last season. Matt Ryan will need to be able to hook up with Tony Gonzalez on a consistent basis and Michael Turner will need to prove he can run the ball as effectively as he did a season ago. Brandon’s Pick: I’m going to go with the Falcons here, 24-10. I don’t think the Wildcat will be enough offense for the Dolphins and Michael Turner will control the ground game. I believe Matt Ryan will begin to prove that he is well on his way to being one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Just watching some of his play in the preseason, he showed an extreme poise and command of the field that you normally don’t see from a 2nd year player. I see it being tough for the Dolphins to take this game. Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens The Chiefs enter the season with a lot of uncertainty: a new head coach in Todd Haley, the loss of All-World tight end Tony Gonzalez, and a new (and somewhat unknown) quarterback in Matt Cassel. The Ravens enter the season with high hopes. Then-rookie quarterback Joe Flacco was solid enough to lean on the Baltimore defense all the way to the AFC title game, where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champs and division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. While the defense lost Bart Scott and defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets, the core of the defensive unit remains intact. Ed Reed is always in the discussion for “best safety in the league” and Ray Lewis provides consistency at linebacker that every team dreams of. The Chiefs Win If: Quite frankly, the only way the Chiefs win this game is if several guys on the defensive side of the ball get hurt for the Ravens. Even then, they’ll have to prove they can stop a solid ground game as well as the possibility of an air attack when necessary. Don’t forget that Matt Cassel is questionable with the knee injury. Even if he plays, the Chiefs will be limited in what they make him do. The Ravens Win If: The Ravens win if they show up on the field. Ok, ok, I know it isn’t that easy. In all seriousness, the Ravens will secure a 1-0 record by playing their trademark style of defense. If they can pressure whoever is playing quarterback, they’ll be able to force turnovers and control time of possession. Brandon’s Pick: I’ve got to take the Ravens in this one, 21-3. I think the defense will dominate, the offense will be there when needed, and I’m thinking the defense will actually score a touchdown. They’re out to prove that they’re still the same after losing defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, and they’ll do just that this week. Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers Philadelphia went all the way to the NFC Championship game last season, and are picked by many, myself included, to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The only question is what happens if Donovan McNabb goes down to injury: will the Eagles be the same with recently-signed Michael Vick running the offense? What about Brian Westbrook? Is he healthy and ready to go, and can he stay that way through the course of a 16 game season? Only time will tell. For the Panthers, the running game was the key in 2008. DeAngelo Williams will need to be the workhorse again this year. An aging Jake Delhomme is out to prove he can still play in this league, and there are some questions on defense, none more pressing than the kind of effort the Panthers can expect from Julius Peppers after his failed attempt to get out of town this offseason. The Eagles Win If: The Eagles will control the game if they can come out firing on all cylinders. Donovan McNabb has always been a very streaky quarterback, meaning he needs to start hot and stay that way. The young Eagles receiving corps has looked good in the preseason and has a lot of hype, so if they can contribute effectively this week, the game is theirs. The Panthers Win If: If the Panthers can take control of the game early, they should be able to run the ball later in the game and head to Atlanta with a victory in hand. It won’t be easy though. Even though the rushing attack can get it done, that alone won’t be able to stifle the Eagles defense. They’ll need a couple of big plays from Steve Smith to break this one open early. Brandon’s Pick: I’ve got to go with the Eagles on this one, 31-14. I think the Eagles offense has a chance to be among the most potent in the league, and they’ll be able to spread the field effectively. I’m just not convinced Jake Delhomme will be able to take over this game if called upon, and despite a solid effort by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, I just don’t think it will produce enough points. Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals The Broncos are in a transition period, and I don’t think you’ll hear anyone argue differently (except for maybe Bill Simmons over at ESPN). They allowed their franchise quarterback to force his way out of town, and now star receiver Brandon Marshall has resorted to pouting in practice in an attempt to get his way. It’s unclear if new head coach Josh McDaniels has the team behind him in his first season. The Bengals are looking to improve and possibly play up to potential this season. Chad Ochocinco looks motivated, and Carson Palmer might be healthy for the first time in a few seasons. If those two can hook up during the season, big things lie ahead. The questions are still on defense, and if it isn’t better this season than in the past, look for head coach Marvin Lewis to be hitting the unemployment line. The Broncos Win If: The Broncos will need to shut down the air attack from the Bengals. Carson Palmer has the ability to be a top passer in the league, and when motivated, Chad Ochocinco can take over a game. If the Broncos can manage to expose the Cincinnati defense, that alone can make this game close. The Bengals Win If: The Bengals need to put some points on the board and prove they can run the ball a little bit. Cedric Benson will go into the season as the lead back, and looks to maybe finally live up to his first round draft status. If Benson can gain some yardage on the ground, the passing game opens up. Combine that with a few key stops on defense, and the Bengals can take this one from the new-face Broncos. Brandon’s Pick: I’m going with the Bengals in this one, 21-18. I think this one could be decided at the last minute. I like what I saw from Cedric Benson in limited action last season, and I’m confident the Bengals offense could be relevant again. Does anyone remember when Carson Palmer was in discussion for the 3rd-best quarterback in the league behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? I do, and I think he’ll be back to form this year. I also think the defense will be slightly better with Mike Zimmer getting some of his own type of players for the defense, along with a linebacking corps that should be automatically better with the addition of Ray Maualuga and Keither Rivers (who lost his rookie season due to injury). Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns Minnesota dominated the offseason headlines with their pursuit of Brett Favre, who finally signed in enough time to see some preseason action. Folks in Minnesota hope that he will strengthen a position that they feel kept them from performing to potential last season. With the best runner in the league in Adrian Peterson, even a minor upgrade should help this team. The Browns didn’t live up to expectations in 2008. Many expected a playoff run, but instead got inconsistent quarterback play and a lot of dropped balls by Braylon Edwards. New head coach Eric Mangini (formerly with the Jets) is looking to turn things around with the team. Although Mangini tried to keep his starting quarterback a secret, it’s not a secret that Brady Quinn outplayed Derek Anderson in the preseason and should get the nod come Sunday. The Vikings Win If: You know what you’re getting with Adrian Peterson, barring injury. Brett Favre will need to be able to help this offense reach further and open up the field a little more. If so, Peterson could have free reign, and on the flip-side, Favre will have open targets if the Vikings go pass on first and second downs. If Minnesota can capitalize on Peterson and the experience of Favre, they’ll be just fine for this game. The Browns Win If: If Braylon Edwards can be who many thought he would be going into last season. He has proven his ability to get open, but he just couldn’t bring the ball in last season. Brady Quinn showed flashes of being able to play at the NFL level in his brief stint last season before going down to injury. Quinn and Edwards will need to connect for a couple of scores and make sure they don’t miss tight end Kellen Winslow, who now plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brandon’s Pick: I’ve got the Vikings taking this one 17-10. I think the Vikings will do just enough to scrape by and their defense will make a few key stops to keep the Browns offense from striking. The unknown here is whether Favre can play at a high level. If so, this could be closer to a 24 point game for the Vikings, but I’m more comfortable with 17 here. New York Jets @ Houston Texans The Jets were a trendy Super Bowl Pick midway through last season. They fell apart after starting strong and missed the postseason. As a result, Eric Mangini was given his walking papers and Rex Ryan was brought in. He immediately went after some defensive talent, so the defense looks to be strong. Rookie Mark Sanchez will be starting week 1, and he’ll hope to have a season similar to Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco a season ago. The Texans have been average the last couple of seasons, which is better than how awful they were as an expansion franchise before that. Matt Schaub has been unable to stay healthy thus far in his tenure in Houston, but Andre Johnson has consistently dominated opponents. Steve Slaton has emerged as a running threat for the Texans, giving them a solid offense along with what is thought to probably be a very strong defense, with defensive play of the year talk already happening for Mario Williams. The Jets Win If: The Jets can win if Mark Sanchez can be a solid game manager. I don’t think anyone is expecting him to light up the field to start with, but if he can limit turnovers and lean on the defense, he’ll be fine. I think Rex Ryan is trying to follow the same approach he was a part of in Baltimore last season with Joe Flacco. The defense should be pretty good, so if the game can stay close, the Jets have a chance. The Texans Win If: If Matt Schaub can stay on the field for this game, this team will be tough to beat. They’re a different team with him on the field, as shown by his 92.7 quarterback rating last season. The big question might be the secondary, where Eugene Wilson and Jacques Reeves are both out for this game. Also notable is that Dunta Robinson missed the entire preseason with a contract holdout. It shouldn’t be an issue this week against a rookie quarterback, but if the Texans offense comes out explosive, it won’t matter anyways. Brandon’s Pick: I’m going with the Texans on this one, 24-7. I think the Texans offense will score early and probably enjoy a nice halftime lead. Mark Sanchez is going to have some growing pains, especially with only one year of starting in college at USC. I think the Jets will struggle in this one. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts The Jaguars are coming off a season in which they fell well short of expectations. David Garrard regressed slightly from the careful quarterback he was in 2007, throwing 13 interceptions in 2008. The team let Fred Taylor head to the Patriots in the offseason, making Jones-Drew the go-to guy. Also lost was receiver Matt Jones, but the team did gain the veteran experience of Torry Holt. The Colts have a new head coach this season. Tony Dungy retired, but hand-picked Jim Caldwell to replace him from within. The only changes you might see are on defense, where there may be a transition period with some scheme changes. Either way, the team still has Peyton Manning who will most likely be sharp out of the gates. The Jaguars Win If: The Jaguars will need to force some turnovers to win this game. Peyton Manning is known for last-minute comebacks, so the Jags will need to take a lead into the 4th quarter to win this one. The Colts Win If: The Colts just need to continue the same style of offense they’ve used. Peyton Manning will need to utilize Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez looks to emerge as a solid number 2 receiver. The talk of missing Marvin Harrison won’t matter much, because remember, with injuries, Harrison might as well have been gone back in 2007. Bob Sanders is out with a knee injury, so Manning and Colts need to score with precision. Brandon’s Pick: I’ll take the Colts, 27-13. I still like the Colts offense and expect that they’ll continue the excellence we’ve seen from them for years. I think the Jags can threaten early on, but won’t be able to capitalize on opportunities. Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints: What else is there to say about the Lions? They went 0-16 last season, and really their only bright spot was having the top overall pick to select Matthew Stafford out of Georgia. They’ll have Stafford starting week 1 despite being outplayed by veteran Daunte Culpepper in the preseason. It’s been speculated that this could have been a marketing scheme for ticket sales, but head coach Jim Schwartz says he liked Stafford’s chemistry with receiver Calvin Johnson. The Saints are entering the year looking to be explosive on offense once again. Drew Brees leads a passing attack that can flat out dominate the field. Former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush is all but an afterthought after a disappointing career thus far because the offense has been successful without major contributions from him. Pierre Thomas enters the season as the starting running back, although he won’t play this week with a knee injury. The Lions Win If: The Lions will need to somehow stifle Brees and the Saints if they have any hope of winning. To be honest, that’s the only way I see it happening. The Saints Win If: This is a game where the Saints just need to play their game to win. No need to complicate this one. Brandon’s Pick: This one looks like a blowout in the making. I’ll take the Saints 37-7. Matt Stafford will turn the ball over early trying to force the ball to Calvin Johnson and the Saints offense will capitalize. No question about this one. Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Cowboys were the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl last season, but fell apart by season’s end, culminated by a 44-6 drubbing at the hands of the division rival Philadelphia Eagles to keep them out of the postseason. Terrell Owens is gone, and there have been a few changes on defense. The Buccaneers surprised many people when they fired head coach Jon Gruden following last season. The Bucs faded down the stretch and missed the postseason. Jeff Garcia was allowed to walk away, and the team drafted Josh Freeman much higher than nearly anyone could have expected. Although he won’t be starting, I have a feeling it won’t take long if the Bucs start the season with a ton of losses. The Bucs also waved goodbye to Derrick Brooks. One bright spot was the trade for tight end Kellen Winslow. The Cowboys Win If: The Cowboys can go home with a win if they can limit turnovers and control the ball. Tony Romo needs to limit impulse throws and Roy Williams needs to be effective. The defense will also need to pressure Byron Leftwich. Leftwich can tear a defense apart if given time, so it will be important that not only Ware, but also Anthony Spencer, get some pressure on Leftwich. If they do these things, they can calm down some of the knee-jerk reactions going on within the media and their fans. The Buccaneers Win If: If the Bucs can throw the ball around a little on the Cowboys, they’ll be happy with the result. They’ll also need to try to force Tony Romo into a couple of turnovers, which isn’t seen as an impossible task until Romo proves he is capable of holding onto the ball and limiting impulse throws. If the Bucs score some early points on a team that normally starts games slow, they’ll pull off an upset and start the Raheem Morris era on a positive note. Brandon’s Pick: I’m going to take the Cowboys in this one, 24-14. The Bucs will score and be within 3 in the 4th quarter, but I think the Cowboys will go back to utilizing Marion Barber to close out the game for one final score. The defense should be able to get to Byron Leftwich and force a bad throw or two for turnovers during this game, maybe at the end. Cowboys’ fans should be able to breathe a sigh of relief after this one. San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals The 49ers are looking to be solid on defense this season in their first full year under head coach Mike Singletary. Although there are questions on offense, Shaun Hill won the quarterback job outright and they’ll lean heavily on production from Frank Gore. First-round pick Michael Crabtree has yet to sign, and I’m starting to think he won’t play at all this season. Singletary is a no-nonsense coach and will bench Crabtree, especially if there are performance incentives galore in any potential contract. The Cardinals surprised the world by making a run to the Super Bowl last season, and nearly pulling off the upset in the big game. Kurt Warner has returned for another season and has possibly the best receiver (if not the best two receivers) in the game to throw to. The big question heading into the season is if their defense can play up to the level it did during the playoff run of the 2008 season. The 49ers Win If: The 49ers will need to use their defense to probably score some points as well as get a timely turnover or two. If Shaun Hill and Frank Gore can move the ball down the field a few time, the 49ers have a shot at starting their season off on the right foot. The Cardinals Win If: The Cardinals will need to score early and often. I’m not convinced their defense is ready to step up and control a game if called upon, so Kurt Warner will need to lead the offense down the field with precision. Without Anquan Boldin this week, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston will need to get open often. Brandon’s Pick: I’ll take the Cardinals, 28-14. I think the 49ers offense will struggle, especially in trying to keep up with the Cardinals offense. I’m not convinced Shaun Hill is ready to be a full-time NFL starter, so I expect him to struggle some during this game with the Cardinals coming out on top. Washington Redskins @ New York Giants The Redskins bolstered their defense in the offseason while remaining mostly consistent on offense. Jason Campbell was more solid than given credit for last season, and a healthy Clinton Portis always poses a threat for defenses. Campbell will be ready to prove he was worthy of keeping over trying to bring in Jay Cutler and finally has the same offense for consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. The Giants were a solid team last season throughout all the drama Plaxico Burress brought upon the team. They won the NFC East but the lack of a serious receiving threat hurt them down the stretch. Still without an established receiver after also losing Amani Toomer, the Giants will rely heavily on the running game and the deepest defensive front in the league. The Redskins Win If: The Redskins can pull off the upset if Jason Campbell can show signs of progress. Santana Moss poses a deep threat, especially on the playaction pass if Clinton Portis is able to get going. Also, don’t forget about Chris Cooley. Cooley is a solid check-down man and is great on third down. The Giants Win If: The Giants need to stop the Redskins offense with their vaunted defensive line. Osi Umenyiora is back from injury this year and Justin Tuck developed into a top player in the league. If the Giants can control the clock with big Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning doesn’t turn the ball over, they’ll be a win up to start the year. Brandon’s Pick: Upset Alert! I’m taking the Redskins, 17-14. I’m not fully convinced that Eli Manning isn’t the same turnover-prone quarterback he was for most of his career before the Super Bowl win. I also have no faith in who he’ll throw the ball to. I think Jason Campbell is better than he gets credit for, and with an offensive scheme set in stone (at least for now), success or failure is in his hands. St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks The Rams had a disappointing 2008. They played the quarterback shuffle and were just overall disoriented. Steve Spagnuolo comes in looking to instill a winning culture within the Rams organization. Spagnuolo has been a hot commodity since heading up the Giants defense that helped win the Super Bowl following the 2007 season. The Seahawks have a new head coach as well. Mike Holmgren stepped down after the 2008 campaign, making way for Jim Mora. Matt Hasselbeck looks to return to form after an injury-plagued season, and the big question is whether the window of opportunity has closed for Seattle. The Rams Win If: The Rams will need Marc Bulger to be effective and evade pressure as well as a heavy dose of Steven Jackson. I’m not sure if the Rams have the talent or firepower to take this one without a little help from some turnovers. The Seahawks Win If: The Seahawks need to play turnover-free football. If the running backs and Hasselbeck can hang onto the ball, I think they’ll take this one. Brandon’s Pick: I’m taking the Seahawks, 20-10. I think it will be a close one until late in the 3rd quarter, and the turnover bug will hit the Rams. Marc Bulger will have a tough time staying upright, because the offensive line doesn’t look to have improved from what it was a season ago. Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers The Bears had one of the best offseason moves of the year with the acquisition of Jay Cutler from the Broncos. Cutler automatically improves a position that has had no consistency for the Bears for upwards of 20 years. Matt Forte will be a solid force running the ball and the Bears defense should be back to form this year. The Packers struggled last season despite Aaron Rodgers playing well above expectations. With talk of a potential Pro Bowl berth this season, Rodgers looks to be consistent and hope the defense will be improved after switching to a 4-3 scheme this offseason. The initial reports on the scheme change have been positive coming out of Green Bay. The Bears Win If: The Bears will win if their defense plays up to potential. Field position will most likely be the crucial aspect in this game. The Packers Win If: The Packers defense will need to outplay the Bears defense, plain and simple. Brandon’s Pick: I’m going to take the Bears in this one, 21-20. In a game where both teams look to have strong offenses, I think the better defense wins the game, and I’m just not convinced the Packers can outperform the Bears on that side of the ball. The Bears also have the edge in special teams. Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots The Bills made one of the most publicized moves of the year when they acquired receiver Terrell Owens after his release from the Dallas Cowboys. Other than that, the Bills have been all talk to this point. Owens missed most of the preseason and the offense failed to score a single touchdown, leading to the firing of their offensive coordinator. The Patriots will look to contend for a title once again, a year after losing Tom Brady for the season. Despite finishing 11-5, the Patriots missed the postseason based on tiebreakers. Now that Brady is back, the Patriots are as hungry as ever, and Brady is out to make up for lost time. The Bills Win If: The Bills have to stop the Patriots offense, plain and simple. If they can’t hold the Pats to under 21 points, they don’t have a chance in this one. Tom Brady simply has too many weapons. The Patriots Win If: The Patriots will need to come out and just do what they’ve always done: play their offense and stuff everything on defense. With Tom Brady throwing to Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Joey Galloway, this team will be tough to stop, especially if they’re able to run the ball with any kind of effectiveness. Brandon’s Pick: Blowout alert: Patriots win 35-10. Terrell Owens will have his first action since the first preseason game and the no-huddle didn’t seem to work for the team to this point. Quick 3-and-outs will kill a team against the Patriots. Bill Belichick will be more merciful in victory this year, not wanting to risk Brady to injury once again. San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders San Diego looks to start strong along with the hype this year. With slow starts the last 2 seasons under Norv Turner, the team still made the postseason. Philip Rivers is solid and Tomlinson is hoping to shake the injury bug this time around. Shawne Merriman also returns to the team after missing most of 2008 with a knee injury. The Raiders are hoping for any sort of improvement this season. The running game is there and the pass defense is there, but other than that, the team shows a lot of holes. JaMarcus Russell has shown he has the arm strength, but needs to show improvement in other areas of the game this season. The team has been so poorly run, former Patriot Richard Seymour has yet to report after being traded to the Raiders last week. The Chargers Win If: The Chargers need to start strong. Tomlinson needs to be effective out of the backfield and the defense needs to be closer to what they were under Wade Phillips a few seasons ago. The Raiders Win If: If the Chargers start slow, the Raiders need to take advantage and turn it into points. Russell needs to show a little poise and the running game needs to be consistently effective. The run defense needs to step up and pass defense will have to maintain momentum from last season. Brandon’s Pick: I’ll take the Chargers in this one, 28-6. I don’t see the Chargers starting slow once again this season. Tomlinson will be more effective and Philip Rivers will continue to be one of the league’s top QB’s. The only unknown is the defense, but I suspect even they will be better than last season.
There you have your week 1 matchup breakdowns. Feel free to discuss them below in the comments section or over in the forum!
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| Last Updated ( Saturday, 12 September 2009 11:08 ) |
